Charting a Course – December 15th, 2022
Arinceo breaks down the week of Pioneer data to provide a glimpse into the future of the format.
Welcome to the latest edition of Charting a Course! We’re now four weeks into the MTGBRO Season and almost wrapped up all of the paper Regional Championships for this cycle. Let’s dig a little deeper into the changes to the format over the past month.
‘Most Dominant’ Decks of the Week (MTGO Challenges)
| Week | Most Top 32s | Most Top 16s | Most Top 8s |
| Oct 22-23 | Green Devotion (14) | Green Devotion (8) | Rakdos Midrange, Green Devotion (3) |
| Oct 29-30 | Rakdos Midrange, Green Devotion (8) | Green Devotion (5) | Green Devotion, Keruga Fires (3) |
| Nov 5-6 | Izzet Phoenix (10) | Izzet Phoenix (6) | Green Devotion, Izzet Phoenix (3) |
| Nov 12-13 | Izzet Phoenix (17) | Izzet Phoenix (7) | Lotus Field (4) |
| Nov 19-20 | Izzet Phoenix (13) | Rakdos Midrange (5) | Rakdos Midrange, Izzet Phoenix (3) |
| Nov 26-27 | Rakdos Midrange (9) | Azorius Control (5) | Azorius Control (3) |
| Dec 3-4 | Rakdos Midrange (18) | Rakdos Midrange (13) | Rakdos Midrange (5) |
| Dec 10-11 | Rakdos Midrange (19) | Rakdos Midrange (13) | Rakdos Midrange (8) |
The last fortnight has seen Rakdos Midrange surge clear of the other decks in the format in terms of results, dominating MTGO Challenge standings and Regional Championships alike. The biggest new addition to the archetype from BRO has been Misery’s Shadow, with its exiling effect having great utility against a number of decks in the format including Green Devotion and Izzet Phoenix. By coming down two turns earlier than Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, the Shadow allows for a proactive removal of an early Old-Growth Troll to prevent Green Devotion decks ramping into an early win and provides another must-kill creature against Phoenix alongside Graveyard Trespasser and Sheoldred, the Apocalypse.
In terms of raw power level on a card-by-card basis, the Rakdos Midrange decks are currently unmatched. Whether the meta can adapt to its newly-found dominance remains to be seen.
FaceToFace Tour Championship, Calgary (263 players) – MTG Melee Event Hub
| Deck | Full Field | Day 2 (220) | Day 2 Conv. | Top 32 | D1 > T32 Conv. |
| Rakdos Mid | 45 | 14 | 31.11% | 8 | 17.78% |
| Green Devotion | 29 | 6 | 20.69% | 3 | 10.34% |
| Mono-White Humans | 29 | 13 | 44.83% | 6 | 20.69% |
| Gruul Vehicles | 22 | 11 | 50.00% | 5 | 22.72% |
| Abzan Greasefang | 16 | 6 | 37.50% | 1 | 6.25% |
| Azorius Control | 15 | 7 | 46.67% | 1 | 6.67% |
| Phoenix | 14 | 4 | 28.57% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Lotus Field | 10 | 4 | 40.00% | 1 | 10.00% |
| Mono-Blue Spirits | 8 | 3 | 37.50% | 2 | 25.00% |
| Other | 75 | 20 | 26.67% | 5 | 6.67% |
Taking a look at the biggest event of the weekend, Canada’s second Regional Championship, we see just how far Green Devotion and Izzet Phoenix have fallen off the competitive metagame compared to the first week of Regional Championships. While Green Devotion was still equal second in the full field meta, its overall conversion rate into Day 2 and Top 32 lagged behind the likes of Mono-White Humans and Gruul Vehicles. There’s no doubt the deck is still powerful in the hands of an experienced pilot, with two players making Top 8 at the event that was eventually won by Joseph Karani on Rakdos Midrange.
Around the Tables
To finish off this week’s article we’re gonna take a look at two very fresh brews that secured solid results over the weekend:
5c Bring to Light Scapeshift by musasabi
10 mythic
34 rare
1 uncommon
15 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (25)
Instants (1)
Lands (29)
60 Cards
$450.32
Sideboard
15 Cards
$259.55
This deck seems to toe the line between genius and crazy, with a boatload of Land-centric synergies including the new Titania, Omnath Locus of Creation and Soul of Windgrace. However, the spiciest way to win is using Dryad of the Ilysian Grove, Dread Presence and Scapeshift to drain out your opponent! Musasabi has been running this on MTGO to some decent success, finishing 25th in Sunday’s MTGO Challenge and picking up two league 5-0s.
Rakdos Scam by Ben McKinnon-Duggins
8 mythic
41 rare
6 uncommon
5 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (13)
Instants (10)
Sorceries (4)
Lands (21)
60 Cards
$666.08
Sideboard
15 Cards
$37.49
Taking naming inspiration from the Modern deck that outvalues its opponent with the Evoke elementals, the ‘Scam’ components of this deck are Phyrexian Dragon Engine and Phyrexian Fleshgorger, with the aim to sacrifice these creatures through a number of ways before immediately bringing them back using cards like Feign Death, Undying Malice and Malakir Rebirth. This can give you a massive threat that must be killed (Fleshgorger) or instead provides strong card advantage (Dragon Engine). Another neat synergy in this deck is Pyre of Heroes, which allows you to sacrifice the Dragon Engine or prototyped Fleshgorger to tutor out either a Sheoldred, the Apocalypse or Mishra, Claimed by Gix! Ben took this deck to a 10th place finish in Sunday’s NRG 5k Pioneer Trial.
Until Next Time
Thanks for reading this week’s article! We’ll be back in a fortnight to check in on the latest results in the metagame and look a little deeper into the evolution of the format in 2022 as a whole.
If there’s anything you’d like to see me examine further in these articles, you can reach me on Twitter and Reddit, or on our PlayingPioneer Discord if you are signed up to our Patreon.
