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It is interesting to imagine that cards have made the foundation of entertainment for centuries. The standard deck of cards that we now think of most often has been around since the Medieval period. Chinese merchant introduced cards to Europe via complex trade routes. But it was the cultural dominance of Europe during the age of colonialism that established a link between gambling and cards.
From Standard Decks to TCGs
The most common card games today are all those that have come to be associated with casinos. The growing success of online gambling only continues to embolden that link. When a modern gambler wants to play a round of blackjack, they will likely turn to the guides and pointers at Vegas Aces rather than to a land-based establishment. Many of the casinos found on the world wide web allow for payments via e-wallets and crypto, making the process a lot simpler.
But casinos do not hold a monopoly on card games. The past century saw a huge rise in what has come to be known as trading card games. Magic: The Gathering is the most dominant of these games today, having a steel grip on the market. Many players may not even be aware of the probability and risk-taking that goes into a game of Magic: The Gathering. There are quite a few similarities with classic gambling games it seems. That is what we hope to examine in this text.
Probability Plays a Big Role
The minimum requirement for a deck in Magic: The Gathering is sixty cards. Most players intuitively understand that going past this limit is not just economically risky, but also hinders their performance when playing the game. But some may not understand exactly why that is. The answer comes down to simple probability. Sixty cards may not seem like all that much. But one must account for the rules that MTG players must follow in order to perform their task. Most aficionados know that just a little under half of the deck should be comprised of land cards, which could serve as dead draws if one goes overboard.
There are those that will argue that land cards don’t have to make up exactly 40 percent of the deck. That is certainly true, but including less than that runs the risk of drawing creatures and spells that end up being entirely ineffective. Without the lands to tap, MTG players end up drawing increasingly more powerful and yet useless cards. That means that for the average MTG player, probability plays a huge role right from the start. It is just as important to the process of deck building as it is to actually playing the game. Of course it becomes all the more important when we come to the actual gameplay.
Expert players who have been involved in the MTG community for decades have deduced that the average person has a 30% chance to draw the exact card that they need on the first go. The number is already influenced by the mulligan rule that Magic: The Gathering players are so familiar with. That means that when you are playing this card game you are not just battling your opponent. You are going up against lady luck herself. This goes to show just how important of an exercise deck building truly is. Creating a balanced deck means that the probability to draw the cards you need sooner goes up.
The Role of Uncertainty
Probability in gaming always finds a treacherous companion in uncertainty. Any card game is rife with uncertainty and Magic: The Gathering is no exception. Uncertainty plagues players when they draw new cards or when they attempt to get a read on their opponent. It can cause new players to make disastrous mistakes and it can even affect experienced gamers in a negative way. But is it possible for uncertainty to be used to one’s advantage?
An uncertain player is one that tends to play it safe. They understand the risks of aggressive moves and avoid them like the plague. In that regard, a player could easily read an opponent’s state of mind. Those that are not certain that a strategy will work may avoid it all together, and that is a weakness that a more courageous player might exploit. But there is one major issue in this line of thinking. That is naturally the fact that there are players who purposefully build slow decks that drag the game out.
It is rather paradoxical that an attempt to exploit uncertainty leads to uncertainty. But it is easy to see the difference between a player who is purposefully stalling and one who is stalling due to fear of making aggressive plays. Once you are able to discern the two types of players, it is fair to say that you’ve attained a new level of play.
Risk and Reward
The topic of risk is one that must be broached when discussing any game. If games did not have risks, then we would not find them fun. The risk in a game of Magic: The Gathering is not that high. But it still provides just enough of a thrill for the player to become deeply invested. Any gambler that has dealt with risk will tell you that it all comes down to managing said danger.
The classic example of risk present in a game is the knowledge that no play is a guaranteed success. It may seem that all paths to victory are open to you. But even the best of gamers can miss the tiny bump at the end of the road that will cause them to stumble. Which means that risk and reward is just a simple matter of assessment.
When is the right time to take the risk and when is the right time to play it safe? A play that has a fifty-fifty chance of success may not be the safest bet to make when you are on the winning side. But when you find yourself fifteen life points short with no other option, that coin toss might be worth making. Risk and reward always comes down to analysis at the end of the day.
